"There's no question that we can pound that country. Bringing in all that firepower will definitely wreak destruction on Iran. But the question you have to ask yourself is, "What will the regime which remains in place do as a consequence?" And number one, as I just explained, the regime will pound Israel. And the Israelis don't want that. Secondly, the regime will go after American military bases, and American troops, in the region, and we (Washington - ed.) really don't want that. And the third thing is the regime in Teheran is likely to shut down the Straits of Hormuz and therefore shut down the flow of oil out of the Persian Gulf, which would have devastating effects on the international economy.
"So the point is that as long as the regime in Teheran is in power, it doesn't make sense to hit them with American military power or Israeli military power, because the regime in Teheran has retaliatory options. Again, what we had hoped to do, was topple the regime, and the American military would come in at the last moment and facilitate that outcome . . . .
"You want to remember that we didn't do regime change in Venezuela. All we did was take away Maduro and elevate the vice-president to the presidency. The regime remains in place. What we (recently) tried to do, in Iran, was regime change. Now when we did regime change in the past we had boots on the ground. Remember Iraq, remember Afghanistan. The last thing Trump wants to do is have boots on the ground. He's not interested in engaging in social engineering. That's why the (Iranian) protesters are so important. They are, in effect, our boots on the ground. But once that doesn't work, right, then you can't use American military power. All this is to say there are great limits to what you can do with military power.
"And this is something that I think Trump intuitively understands. His predecessors did not understand that, which is why we invaded Iraq and engaged in social engineering with boots on the ground. Trump understands you can't do that. That's why he didn't pursue regime change in Venezuela, and that's why he's not putting boots on the ground in Iran.
"But the point is that there are lots of people in the body politic who just think we can drive aircraft carriers into the region, use those aircraft carriers to topple the regime in Iran, and then march on the next target. It doesn't work that way. There are real limits to what you can do with military power, which again, is why we've put boots on the ground in the past.
"And I think that Trump understands that. And that's why Trump, although he has used military force quite liberally since taking office; I count seven different countries that he's attacked; and, of course, he's threatening to take Greenland with military force, or he has been threatening to take Greenland with military force, although he uses military force liberally, he uses it in a pin-prick fashion.
"He doesn't invade countries and end up with boots on the ground. And as long as he doesn't end up with boots on the ground, he will be pretty much free to use military force here and there against weak adversaries. But the end result is not that significant, because there are just real limits to what you can do with air power alone, or by removing Maduro and replacing him with Ms. (Delcy) Rodriguez. It just doesn't add up to that much."
-----John Mearsheimer, January 22, 2026
Source:
"John Mearsheimer Lays Out NEW WORLD ORDER," Breaking Points, January 22, 2026
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