Sunday, November 13, 2016

The Hillary Clinton Campaign: An Autopsy

Hillary lost the white vote, 58% to 27%. She lost white women, 53% to 43%, an amazing result given that Trump was widely perceived to be a sexual predator. She won the overall women's vote, 54% to 42%, but that was one percent less than Obama got in 2012. Trump did 2% better with blacks than Romney did four years ago, while Hillary lost 5% of that group compared to what Obama got, making for a seven point differential. The Hispanic vote revealed the same pattern. Trump got 29% compared to Romney's 27%. Hillary got 65%, where Obama had received 71%, an eight percent overall difference unfavorable to Hillary. There was no Great White Surge: Trump received 1.5 million fewer votes than did Romney. But the decline for Hillary was far worse - she got 5.4 million fewer votes than Obama had in 2012, many of them black and Hispanic, and lost six states that Obama won twice: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa. That's fairly conclusive evidence that Hillary Clinton lost because she's on the wrong side of the class war, not because Donald Trump is the KKK.

Voter support for both major parties is in steady decline. Presidential votes cast for the GOP were 62 million in 2004, 59.9 million in 2008, 60.9 million in 2012, and 59.6 million this year. That's a four percent decline in twelve years, despite eleven percent population growth in that time. Meanwhile, Democratic presidential votes were 69.5 million in 2008, 65.9 million in 2012, and 59.8 million this year. That's a fourteen percent drop in just eight years.

Spending on election advertising was $96.4 million for Hillary Clinton and $17.3 million for Donald Trump.

In just a year-and-a-half a reality TV star has ridden an anti-establishment wave into the Oval Office, leaving the political elites of both the Democratic and Republican parties thoroughly discredited. The Bush and Clinton family "dynasties" are in ruins.